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Could Zach Eflin, who helped the Philadelphia Phillies win the National League pennant two years ago, play a major role in attempting to thwart his old team’s chances of winning another World Series?

The division-rival Atlanta Braves are “keeping a close eye on Eflin” as the July trade deadline draws closer, according to a Sunday article by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

Given that the Braves lost All-Star Spencer Strider for the season when he had to have an internal bracing treatment to correct an elbow problem, it makes sense to assume that the team will add at least one starter before the July 30 trade deadline. Although Reynaldo López has pitched well this season, he hasn’t thrown more than 70 innings in a single campaign since 2019. Chris Sale and Max Fried also face durability concerns.

The Braves should definitely aim for a right-handed pitcher because they have two lefties in Sale and Fried. In what looks to be a lackluster trade market—especially if teams like the Houston Astros decide not to sell—Eflin would offer them that.

Eflin would also not be a rental because he is only in the second season of a three-year, $40 million contract. The Braves would like to have an experienced veteran like Eflin under contract for the upcoming season rather than relying on Strider, whose specific needs are unknown in 2025, and Fried, who might become a free agent following this season.

Eflin, who joined the Rays in his rookie season and finished sixth in the AL Cy Young Award, is batting 4.12 this season with a 3.67 FIP in 59 innings pitched.

Eflin, 30, is entitled to a $1 million bonus under his contract if he is traded. The trade deadline for Major League Baseball is July 3.

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Rays right-hander is allegedly of interest to the Braves.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Braves are “keeping a close eye on” Zach Eflin as a possible trade target before the deadline.

Since Spencer Strider’s season-ending internal brace surgery, rotation support has been considered a possible requirement for Atlanta, and Eflin appears to be a potentially interesting option for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, with a 4.12 ERA through 10 starts and 59 innings, Eflin is once again throwing effectively in terms of financial outcomes. With a stellar 1.6% walk rate, the right-hander is still one of the top control specialists in the game, despite significant concerns in other important statistics.

Although Eflin’s barrel rate is just marginally below average, he is once again among the league leaders in barrels; yet, both his strikeout rate (17.9%) and hard-hit ball rate (41.6%) are below average. In 2023, Eflin’s first season in Tampa Bay ended with a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young Award voting, and he was substantially above average in both categories.

Eflin’s 2024 figures won’t necessarily deter a contender like the Braves, who have dealt with Eflin as a division opponent during Eflin’s Phillies years and are well-versed in his work. Given Eflin’s lengthy history of knee issues, durability may possibly be an issue, but he pitched 182 2/3 innings in the regular season and playoffs last year, missing only a small period of time on the disabled list because of a bad back.

These are all valid reasons why, as they continue to push for another playoff berth, the Rays themselves might instinctively want to maintain Eflin in their own rotation. After a dismal April, Tampa Bay has improved to a 25-23 record thanks to a hot streak that has seen the team go 11-6 in its last 17 games.

Even though there are reinforcements on the coming, Eflin has also been a calming influence in a rotation plagued by injuries. In his recovery from a leg contusion, Ryan Pepiot may come off the 15-day IL this week. Shane Baz, who is presently on a rehab assignment, and Jeffrey Springs are anticipated to return in July or August from Tommy John surgery rehab. Drew Rasmussen is expected to return in approximately the same amount of time following an internal brace procedure last July.

Tampa Bay may feel comfortable relying on these internal arms to help replace the void left by dealing Eflin if at least one of Springs, Baz, or Rasmussen returns by the deadline and the Rays are satisfied with the others’ progress.

Most clubs would not want to take this risk, but as is typically the case with the Rays, payroll may play a role in their choices. Currently in his second season, Eflin is paid $40 million over three years, $11 million in 2023, $11 million in 2024, and $18 million in 2025. (In addition, he gets a $1 million bonus if a trade occurs.)

The Rays would be able to get rid of the remaining portion of Eflin’s 2024 salary and escape the backloaded final component of that contract if they moved Eflin. The Rays may try to trade Eflin this summer even if he isn’t sold by the deadline, much like they did with Tyler Glasnow last winter, who was owed $25 million in 2024 by the Dodgers due to the conditions of his prior contract.

Adding Eflin would also have some intriguing salary ramifications for the Braves, whose estimated luxury tax amount is $272.5 million (according to RosterResource). This is approaching the third tax tier, which starts at $277M, and is currently far into the second tax tier.

Atlanta hasn’t held back when it comes to spending large to win another World Series, but doing so comes with a secondary cost: the Braves’ first pick in the 2025 draft will drop ten spots. The Braves may be especially concerned about Eflin’s 2025 contract, though, because Max Fried and Charlie Morton will both be unrestricted free agents this winter.

Given that Erik Neander and Alex Anthopoulos are two of baseball’s most inventive executives, a lot of intriguing swaps between Atlanta and Tampa might be conceived of that would allow Eflin to perhaps move teams while keeping the Braves below the third luxury tax category.

Perhaps a third team could be brought into the negotiations to even things out, or the Rays could gobble up more of Eflin’s deal in order to get a better prospect return from the Braves.

Even without Strider, Atlanta’s rotation has been fairly strong; as of Sunday, the Braves’ starters had a combined 3.44 ERA, which ranked them tenth in baseball. Fried, Morton, Chris Sale, and Reynaldo Lopez have all been excellent to excellent; but, Sale’s durability is always in doubt, and Lopez—who is currently enjoying his first full-season start since 2020—hasn’t thrown more than 66 innings in a single season since 2019. Lopez also has a brilliant 1.34 ERA.

Although AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep, Allan Winans, Darius Vines, and Huascar Ynoa, along with top prospects, provide depth, Bryce Elder is the team’s fifth starter. However, a pitcher like Eflin might be a more reliable asset for a team that wants to win a title.