ESPN report: In a three-game series against the Cincinnati Reds, we are traped.

On the one hand, the squad in last place. However, the pitching matchups aren’t the best.

I would characterize this as a succession of dangers. To put it another way, this has the vibe of a trap series. With a five-game winning streak under their belt, the Cardinals are riding high after sweeping the Baltimore Orioles, who are considered the NL Central favorites. They now have to play the Central Division’s bottom team (maybe not right now). It stands to reason that a team in the lead against a squad in last place should be able to maintain that level of play.

As I’ve said previously, matchups are everything in baseball, and the matchups in this series are… not great. In none of the three games, the Cardinals have the home team’s preferred pitcher. In two of the three games, it’s also unlikely that their 7-8-9 inning arms will be available. I mention two out of the three; why? It is unlikely that they will be available tomorrow, and if they pitch on Tuesday, they are not allowed to pitch on Wednesday (4 games pitched out of 5 is usually not allowed). The Reds just defeated the Dodgers 3-0 as well.

Even though they were the clear favorites in the Gray vs. Assad matchup going into the Cubs series, they still didn’t have a great start to the series and managed to win two of the three games. Though to be fair, the weather delay made a significant difference, making the Cardinals the clear favorite and a toss-up. A club that is clicking may accomplish feats like sweeping the Orioles.

Furthermore, the Reds’ offense is subpar right now. Great American Ballpark will always be Great American Ballpark, but this season they have an 85 wRC+. If you believe that the Cards’ offense has struggled this season, compare Brendan Donovan’s performance to that of Paul Goldschmidt. Which is only comparable to what Goldy’s two home runs from yesterday allow me to draw.

There is a lot of dead weight on the Reds offense’s roster. They are giving him dead weight a lot of plate appearances, therefore they must not have other options. Nick Martini, who the Cardinals selected in the seventh round of the 2011 draft, has been allowed to bat 102 times and has rewarded the Reds with a 2.7 BB%, 27.5 K%, and 51 wRC+. Mike Ford has a 10 wRC+ after 61 plate appearances. In 134 plate appearances, Santiago Espinal has a 47 wRC+. In 45 games, Jeimer Candelario has been at replacement level. With a 91 wRC+, Will Benson has struck out over 40% of the time.Despite being at replacement level nearly 200 PAs into the season, Jonathan India has remained healthy.

Not everything is negative. Elly de la Cruz leads the team in stolen bases (31) and has a 124 wRC+ while playing shortstop. Spencer Steer’s wRC+ is 114. A random 26-year-old outfielder with 12 career games, Jacob Hurtubise, is their leadoff batter. Really, his opening statement tells it all, doesn’t it?

The Reds’ formerly dominant closer and brother of Edwin, Alexis Diaz, has been… quite bad. He’s walking 15% of batters and only striking out 24%. He actually walked a lot of batters last year too, but you get away with it more when you strike out 30% of batters. He is what he is: an unhittable pitcher when he has control which is less often than the Reds would like. Fernando Cruz has one of the more impressive – and weirder stat lines. He has struck out 45% of batters he’s faced! And somehow has a 4.37 ERA. You can bet the advanced stats think that’s unlucky! (1.63 FIP)

Lucas Sims hasn’t done well. Buck Farmer appears to have a very high ERA (2.19), however his true metrics are 4.25 xERA, 4.76 xFIP, and 3.98 FIP. Who knows how sustainable that is in the long run, but Sam Moll has been the weak contact god (2.56 xERA, 4.90 xFIP). There has only ever been Brent Suter. Aside from Fernando Cruz, it’s actually impressive that none of these players have a very excellent xFIP, which is especially distressing for them given how simple it is to smash long runs in their park. Unless you face Cruz, this bullpen is not very good.

I believe that any remarks I make about Lynn surrendering home runs will be retired if he manages to leave Great American Ballpark unscathed. His HR rate is basically typical, and he’s not exactly getting lucky to have it either. It will be difficult still because this park makes even the most homer-suppressing pitcher struggle to hold the ball.

Lodolo is a real threat and will not be taken lightly. This year, he has only made six starts, but in two of those he has struck out 10 and 11 batters. Although he has a solid K/BB ratio throughout his career, he has had trouble when hitters make contact for whatever reason. Professional life.335 BABIP in comparison to 16.7 HR/FB%. However, he might have improved this year.

When I stated that the Cardinals don’t have the better pitching matchup in any of these three games, I was a little deceiving. I don’t really believe in Abbott, so even though I would still say that’s technically accurate, I think this fight is a wash. Given his 2.72 xERA, he has seemingly produced weak contact, but I don’t think you can really say that’s a skill of his in 10 starts. Not one advanced statistic indicates that he is a good pitcher; he is only striking out 18.8% of batters.

Gibson will most likely pitch a decent if unspectacular game that will need some offense, which should be possible against Abbott and this bullpen. Gibson’s style is known for its ability to do this.

Refer once more to my deceptive assertion. Although it’s unclear who is truly starting this game—Liberatore, Andre Pallante, or a legitimate bullpen game—it’s not ideal. Still, you have to believe that the Cards have a decent chance of winning when the opposition has pitched as poorly as Montas has.

Did anyone else fail to notice that Liberatore hasn’t been all that horrible from the beginning? It’s actually been a really weird season for him. He was in the bullpen at the beginning of the season, and while his 3.78 ERA was respectable, his 16.9 K%, 12.3 BB%, and 4.52 xFIP were below average. He has had terrible results (8.10 ERA) in his starts, but he has also demonstrated many of the traits of a strong pitcher (20 K%, 6.7 BB%, 3.50 xFIP). Is it just me, or does that seem really weird?

Even though I still believe that this is a risky series, after writing this preview, my confidence in the Cardinals winning the series has increased compared to when I first looked at the pitching matchups.