Shocking: HELP ME, YOU ARE OUR ONLY HOPE

*Today’s game is early, but make sure to read Jonathan’s recap.

Due to a strained left oblique, the Braves placed AJ Smith-Shawver on the injured list yesterday. Additionally, Ray Kerr was called up to the bigs and promptly demolished (I still believe there is SP potential there). And, in the most unexpected move of all, signed MLB player Joey Wendle.

For the first time, sidewinder Jimmy Herget dons the Braves uniform. At least one more Stripers uniform will be worn by Darius Vines than he would like.

Although I must admit that I am far more familiar with Alex Anthopouols’s mind than Brian Snitker’s, I was certain that Joey Wendle would be chosen over Zack Short. Hey, Reynaldo Lopez, help us. Pirates come from the evil side, as we all know.

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Chris Sale is the Braves’ (again) closer as they attempt to prevent a sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Braves’ offense has struggled to get hits because Chris Sale has been unhittable.

I won’t describe it as “good” news, but the Pirates out-xwOBAed and out-wOBAed the Braves last night. They also had a greater difference between the two, but even though they lost on a potentially game-tying single that was attempted for an out, the outcome wasn’t quite as absurd as it was in the series opener.

Nevertheless, a fresh day has arrived, and the two previous losses have forced Chris Sale back into the role of halted pitcher. This will be the third time this season that he starts following back-to-back defeats, and the second time in a row that the Braves have asked him to assist in ending their mini-skid. All things considered, the Braves are still trying to get some momentum following their dismal 10–11 May. At this stage, the second month of the season is a lot like the previous two:

Although the Braves’ offensive production is lacking, a large portion of that deficit is caused by outside circumstances. While a.321 xwOBA in May is far closer to “fine” than “good,” as the sample below demonstrates, one of the true reasons has been a consistent failure to generate outputs that match inputs this month. Because of this, 2023 looks to be unfolding in the early going like a hybrid of 2022 and 2023 — a combination of hitting poorly in May (from 2022) and playing well in April (from 2023) as well as the opening of a sizable divisional gap (also from 2022).

The Braves are now not the division favorites and will undoubtedly have their work cut out for them in the NL East. Though there aren’t many teams who are clearly contenders at this point in the season, we are also witnessing the impacts of expanding the playoffs, so the Braves’ chances of making it to the postseason aren’t in danger in the slightest.

Nevertheless, in a micro sense, the Braves are limited to winning the games that are in front of them, and fortunately, Chris Sale has so far made that kind of play extremely conducive. With a 54 ERA, 58 FIP, and 61 xFIP through 56 2⁄3 innings, Sale has been among the top ten starters in MLB and the Braves have won seven of his nine starts. He has been virtually impenetrable during the May team’s struggles:

We’re talking about a ridiculous line of 9/18/42 in four starts, and if the offense, ball-in-play ghosts, HR/FB zephyrs, and/or other factors don’t cooperate, the Braves may need something along those lines again today.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are riding high after swatting down the Braves twice in a row at this point, and they’ll be looking for Martin Perez to seal the sweep. Perez managed just 0.5 fWAR in a swing capacity across 141 2⁄3 innings with the Rangers last year, and nonetheless parlayed that into a $8 million, one-year contract from the Pirates this offseason. He’s been more or less the same level of (in?)effective so far in Pittsburgh, with a 117 ERA- and 119 FIP-, the latter giving him 0.2fWAR on the season. While the pseudo-good news for him is that his 109 xFIP- so far this year is better than the 116 mark he had last year, it’s still not particularly good. The Pirates have gone 4-6 in his starts this year; meanwhile, Perez has allowed a homer in four straight starts (with eight homers total in that span), while also striking out five or fewer batters a game in his last five tries. If the Braves can get some kind of HR/FB swing in their favor, this could be a laugher, but not much has been a laugher for them lately.